I have a friend who has a wine site and has been poking around the advertiser information (media kits) from a competitive site. He’s doing some comparative research for his site, and looking into ad sizes, CPM rates, and other types of information those sites are making public about their traffic to sell advertising.
Meaning, if Site A had 50k page views last month with an Alexa “reach per million users” of 8. And, Site B had an average reach of 64. Would that mean that Site B had 8x as many visits, or 400k page views?
His site Winelog, had 50k page views last month with approximately 4K Inbound Links. WineSpectator has about 64k inbound links. Would that mean that they have about 16x as much traffic, or 800k page views? As stated in their Media Kit, the quoted number was closer to 4 million. Why the inconsistency? Is it just that the Alexa numbers are off.
Is there a simple formula for roughly calculating a site’s traffic based on inbound links?
Therefore, if a website has 15k Inbound links and 50k pageviews per month, and if I see nother site with 60k inbound links, should I expect them to have 4x the traffic? Or, is the relationship non-linear? Are other factors (like construction of the pages, lack of AJAX, etc) too much of a factor to do good comparisons?
He was concerned that some sites might be overstating their traffic in their ad kits.
Ok, let’s assume for a minute that Jason’s theory that Inbound links are correlated with visits is correct for Natural traffic. Does that mean the sites where he got the media kits from are lying if their Alexa ratings were low? I say no. Because, one major factor that is not being considered, is what if they are running a PPC campaign? Then, they could potentially have a million page views, and have very few inbound links.
Another possibility, is they could be buying links to increase their Search Engine rankings. Rather than naturally getting them thru other web publishers linking to them. Although, then the question is, did they acheive a higher position in the SERPs, and get an increase in website traffic thru their link buy?
Another possibility could be an older site that once upon a time had many inbound links and visitors, but just got stale, and lost it’s traffic numbers. So, it has a strong inbound link profile, but a decrease in website traffic.
I haven’t checked to see if any industry research has been conducted, so just kinda openly discussing these ideas.
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